2021 NFL Free Agent Values
I want to look at 2021 Free Agents (UFA) and see if we can find value with them or their current teammates at their current ADP. I will give my top free agents at each position and some quick insights. This ADP is from Underdog Fantasy as of 2/28/2021.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott 64.5 - He is the only one on this QB list that is 100% starting opening week. Dallas will pay him at some point. BUY
Jameis Winston 182.6 - Saints seem to favor Taysom Hill. Not sure I want to gamble on Winston maybe as my QB3. AVOID
Mitchell Trubisky 214.6 - Hard to draft him when the Bears could go with him, Foles, or a rookie in the draft. AVOID
Cam Newton 215.0 - Might be more in line for a backup role for 2021, or the Patriots could roll the dice one more time. AVOID
Others to Consider: Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton
Running Backs
Aaron Jones 17.1 - I think Jones is priced about right. Maybe he gets a slight bump up in ADP once he signs with a new team or back in GB. BUY
***A.J. Dillon 50.0 gets a big bump with both Jones and Williams set to exit via Free Agency***
Chris Carson 65.7 - Carson may be on on the downward slope as far as RB’s go but I think he has one more solid year in him. BUY
***Rashaad Penny 134.8 is a sneaky value RB in the last half of drafts that has a rising ADP as it looks like Carson won’t be back***
Kenyan Drake 92.7 - Drake was already an up and down player which isn’t always the worst in Best Ball. Seems like a timeshare situation is in store for him. EVEN
***Chase Edmonds 93.3 looks like a solid value right now for those looking at zero RB strategy***
Leonard Fournette 87.2 - He was cut by the Jags to start the season and nearly cut by the Bucs in the middle of the season. Huge down the stretch and great playoff run. I can’t trust him. AVOID
***Ronald Jones 80.7 Both Jones and Fournette’s ADP’s seem to be linked together. If Fournette signs elsewhere, Jones ADP will go UP***
James Conner 122.4 - This ADP is probably too low and I can see him taking a couple round jump in ADP once he signs his new contract. I like him in my RB4-6 range at this current price. BUY
***Benny Snell 203.6/Anthony McFarland 202.1 Conner will likely be gone which will elevate both Snell and McFarland’s ADP immediately***
Jamaal Williams 146.4 - Jones and Williams could both by gone in Green Bay in 2021. Williams is a capable RB and will get a big ADP boost when either GB resigns him or when he lands a new deal on a new team. BUY
***A.J. Dillon 50.0 gets a big bump with both Jones and Williams set to exit via Free Agency***
Mike Davis 181.6 - Davis looked great in 2020. I think he makes a lot of sense drafting as your RB6 type hoping he lands a sizable role in 2021. BUY
Todd Gurley 170.6 - Gurley has the name to get people to click the draft button. I won’t be one of those people. AVOID
***Falcons seem like an automatic to draft a top tier RB in 2021. Not sure I want to take shots on Hill, I.Smith, or Ollison***
Others to Consider: Le’Veon Bell, Mark Ingram, Brian Hill, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Malcolm Brown, Jerick McKinnon, Kalen Ballage, Wayne Gallman, James White
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson 33.4 - I love ARob and always will. I see a legitimate shot that he ends 2021 as the WR1 overall. All comes down to where he signs. BUY
***Darnell Mooney 126.3 The minute Robinson signs with a new team, Mooney bandwagon will explode***
Chris Godwin 46.2 - Does he stay in TB? Probably if you had to bet on it, yes. No matter where he is playing he is a legit WR in the league. BUY
Kenny Golladay 54.0 - 2020 was a painful season for Golladay. Hoping the situation improves for him as he has all the talent in the world. EVEN
***Quintez Cephus 209.2 Looks like the Lions could franchise tag Golladay, either way Jones will be out so Cephus could be teams WR2***
Will Fuller 72.1 - At this ADP, Fuller could be a league winner. He is great for the Best Ball format. BUY
***Brandin Cooks 83.0 Cooks is always the forgotten guy but a guy that will produce***
Curtis Samuel 102.0 - Samuel had a bit of a breakout in 2020 and now looks to get paid because of it. I like the upside to continue in 2021. BUY
***D.J. Moore 41.4/Robby Anderson 75.7 I feel like there is more value in Anderson this year with Samuel out of the picture***
Corey Davis 110.2 - Davis had a miserable career up until last year. I don’t think the Titans will pay him but someone will. EVEN
***A.J. Brown 24.6 Seems crazy to think Brown at ADP 24.6 seems like a buy, but I love it. If both Davis/Smith are out, Brown could see 150 targets***
Marvin Jones 132.6 - Jones already stated he wants to go to a contender for 2021. He would look good in Green Bay? BUY
***Quintez Cephus 209.2 Looks like the Lions could franchise tag Golladay, either way Jones will be out so Cephus could be teams WR2***
T.Y. Hilton 150.2 - At this current ADP I think Hilton is a nice WR6-7 type on any Best Ball team. His ADP will rise once he lands in FA. BUY
***Michael Pittman 104.7/Zach Pascal 215.1 If Hilton exits Indy, Pittman’s ADP will go up 3+ Rounds. Pascal will be a solid late round pick***
Nelson Agholor 167.3 - Agholor played well last season and will likely be rewarded for it. Was it for real or just a fluke? ADP seems about right. EVEN
***Henry Ruggs 152.6/Bryan Edwards 204.7. Raiders are thinner at WR both Ruggs and Edwards have upside and more upside without Agholor in town***
Antonio Brown 112.2 - Brown is much like Todd Gurley to me, just name value. I think his ADP should be more like 190.0 AVOID
Rashard Higgins 201.9 - Sneaky late round pick for me who I think will be a top 3 WR on what ever team signs him. His ADP will rise. BUY
***Donovan Peoples-Jones 215.2 With Higgins gone Peoples-Jones will slot into WR3 role in Cleveland***
Keelan Cole 212.1 - Much like Higgins, Cole has nowhere to go but up as far as ADP goes. Great last round pick. BUY
Others to Consider: AJ Green, Breshad Perriman, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, Kendrick Bourne, Damiere Byrd, David Moore, Josh Reynolds, Demarcus Robinson, Chris Conley, John Ross, Willie Snead, Larry Fitzgerald
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry 106.8 - TE position is always one that teams overpay for in FA. Someone will pay big bucks for Henry and his ADP will rise. EVEN
***Donald Parham 191.2 will only continue to rise once Henry is officially out in LA Chargers land. Buy Parham now***
Jonnu Smith 129.3 - Much like Henry but I think Smith can offer more for a team as far as athleticism and his ADP is a 2 round discount. BUY
***Anthony Firkser 211.2 If both Davis and Smith are out for the Titans they will be thin at pass catchers. Firkser makes some sense to fill in***
Rob Gronkowski 150.5 - Gronkowski had one good game last season and it was the Super Bowl. Super Bowl points won’t help you. AVOID
Gerald Everett 205.0 - At this ADP I think you are safe in firing a few shots on Everett to land in a friendly pass first offense. BUY
***Tyler Higbee 128.1 is a bargain right now, if you miss out on the big names at the top of the TE board, draft Higbee with confidence***
Dan Arnold 213.2 - I think he is a last round TE3 only type of play. He can help you from taking a 0 at the position. EVEN
Others to Consider: Tyler Eifert, James O’Shaughnessy, Trey Burton, Jared Cook, Jordan Reed, Jacob Hollister
If you are a fan of Best Ball and want to discuss NFL Best Ball in general feel free to contact me via Twitter @JamesBrimacombe
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