NFL Top 15 ADP Values/Overvalues
I am finishing up my NFL Best Ball rankings for 2021 and wanted to share a quick update of where I think the ADP Values and Overvalues are on Underdog Fantasy. After drafting and completing 25+ drafts for 2021, I have compiled my top 15 ADP Values and Top 15 ADP Overvalues for the 2021 season.
My Top 15 ADP Values for NFL 2021 Best Ball (The Big Board)
Chris Carson RB 64.2 - I love scooping him up in the 6th Round as my RB3.
Chase Edmonds RB 96.8 - Who knows what the Cardinals backfield looks like but good bet to bet on Edmonds.
David Montgomery RB 36.4 - Drafters seem to have a dislike for this guy but a strong 2020 season on a bad team.
Curtis Samuel WR 106.8 - Free agent that is sneaky under the radar right now.
Michael Pittman WR 112.2 - The Colts are on the lookout for new QB, when that happens Pittman’s value goes way up.
Kareem Hunt RB 53.4 - He is a 5th round target of mine as the Browns as a whole are on the way up. Great Best Ball RB.
Damien Harris RB 104.5 - We hate drafting New England RB’s for 20 years, it just helps their ADP fall.
Allen Robinson WR 34.9 - You can scoop him up in the 3rd round easily, when he lands on new team he will be RD2.
Baker Mayfield QB 126.7 - The best value QB I can find on the board. Nice young offensive team with a great ADP = upside.
Ronald Jones RB 83.7 - Jones was solid in the regular season, Fournette was great in the playoffs causing Jones ADP to fall.
Austin Hooper TE 155.0 - My third Browns player on this list. I like the TE values this year and think it starts with Hooper.
Hayden Hurst TE 143.6 - Solid value TE that you can try to pair with a Hooper type to give you a weekly safe floor with modest upside.
James Washington WR 186.7 - Juju won’t be back and Johnson and Claypool are the big names. Washington is a forgotten man with cheap ADP.
Tim Patrick WR 214.5 - Patrick came out of nowhere late last year. He makes a great last round WR7/WR8 type to fill out roster.
Darnell Mooney WR 126.6 - Robinson will be long gone, and Mooney had an underrated rookie season. New QB? Second year explosion?
Top 15 ADP Over Valued for NFL 2021 Best Ball (The Big Board)
Antonio Brown WR 104.9 - ADP 104.9??? really? Would much rather look for upside guys like Samuel and Pittman who I listed above.
Tarik Cohen RB 155.3 - Coming off an injury and really just not having weekly upside I want someone else to draft Cohen.
Jamesis Winston QB 162.8 - Who knows what happens with the QB spot in New Orleans. Even if Winston starts the season at QB doesn’t mean much.
A.J. Green WR 187.2 - We have seen the tale of the older WR in the past. Not an upside play to take a shot at with injury history and age.
Blake Jarwin TE 159.5 - Tight end is a spot that I don’t want to take chances on as I only want to draft 2 at the position. Coming off in injury.
David Johnson RB 92.3 - Maybe he also could be a value but not the type of player I want to gamble on in 2021.
Jalen Hurts QB 88.0 - This ADP seems about 3 rounds off to me. Eagles QB situation is not set in stone just yet for 2021.
J.D. Mckissic RB 140.7 - Feels like Mckissic was just inserted into a somewhat bad team and raked up stats. Not sure you can count on that in 2021.
Jaylen Waddle WR 103.8 - This one is tricky as I think Waddle could contribute deeper into his rookie season but at 103.8 ADP it’s too rich for me.
Trey Lance QB 190.1 - Would rather take shots on other QB’s and like Zach Wilson much better a couple of rounds in front of his ADP.
Damien Williams RB 155.1 - This one is a true gamble. Seems like Williams will opt back in for 2021, but even if he does, what will his role be?
Ryan Tannehill QB 98.2 - QB’s are always overvalued at this point in the year, Tannehill’s ADP will likely drop a round or two over the next month.
Dak Prescott QB 62.9 - Hefty ADP price tag right now, Not sure I want to spend a 5th-6th round pick on Prescott. I like him in 8th/9th round range.
Justin Herbert QB 65.6 - This price is based on 2020 rookie hype. You will pay a premium to draft Herbert this year.
Kyler Murray QB 54.9 - First half of 2020 he was QB1 overall, Second half was a different story. Expensive ADP to start the 2021 season.
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